Flu Epidemic in France Set to Peak Around Year-End, Hospitals Brace for Impact

France is currently facing a widespread flu epidemic affecting all mainland regions, with health authorities warning of a significant strain on hospitals during the upcoming holiday season. According to new projections from the Institut Pasteur and Santé publique France (SPF) released on December 17, all regions have been in the epidemic phase since December 10, with flu indicators rising across all age groups.

The modeling anticipates a peak in flu activity toward the end of 2025: specifically, there is a 15% probability of peaking in week 51, 70% in week 52, and 12% in week 1 of 2026. This peak is expected to lead to a surge in emergency room visits and hospitalizations related to flu symptoms. Juliette Paireau, a research engineer at the Institut Pasteur, highlighted the uncertainty about the epidemic’s peak magnitude and timing, noting that a post-Christmas resurgence, as seen last year, or a later peak as in the 2022-2023 season, cannot be ruled out.

Notably, the rate of flu-related deaths is currently twice that recorded in 2024, standing at 1.8%, while clustered cases in nursing homes have nearly doubled from 29 to 57. Despite the expected decline in transmission due to school closures during the holiday break, health experts caution against complacency given the potential for renewed outbreaks once schools reopen.

The flu epidemic's progression and impact this year follow a severe precedent, with the 2024-2025 winter flu season accounting for approximately 17,000 deaths. The new four-week forecasts from Pasteur and SPF aim to support healthcare providers and authorities in managing resources through the crucial holiday period when hospital demand is projected to peak.

In summary, France is bracing for a significant flu wave late in 2025, with hospitals preparing for increased admissions and health officials remaining vigilant about potential epidemic rebounds after the holidays.