France's December 2025 Inflation Moderates with Energy Prices Falling and Food Costs Rising

In December 2025, consumer prices in France increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking a slowdown from November's 0.9% rise, according to provisional data from Insee. The monthly inflation rate edged up by 0.1% after a 0.2% fall in November, driven mainly by seasonal rebounds in service tariffs, especially in transportation, and a slight rise in food prices.

Energy prices significantly contributed to the inflation moderation, falling by 6.8% compared to a 4.6% drop in November, primarily due to declines in petroleum product costs. Conversely, food prices accelerated with a 1.7% increase year-on-year, notably for fresh products, while manufactured goods prices decreased by 0.4%, a slower pace than the 0.6% decline observed in November.

Service prices saw a 2.2% year-on-year increase and tobacco prices rose 4.1%, with both remaining stable compared to November. The harmonized consumer price index (IPCH), which enables Eurozone inflation comparisons, rose 0.7% year-on-year in December, down from 0.8% in November, with a monthly increase of 0.1%.

Looking ahead, Insee projects inflation will gradually rise to around 1.5% by June 2026, mainly due to anticipated increases in energy prices, especially electricity. The Bank of France concurs, forecasting inflation will climb moderately but remain below 2%, expecting an overall inflation rate of 1.3% for 2026.

Final data for December will be published by Insee on January 15, 2026.