France's National Assembly Faces Crucial Vote on 2026 Social Security Budget Amid Political Uncertainty

On December 9, 2025, the French National Assembly is set to cast a decisive vote on the 2026 Social Security financing bill, with the government facing a finely balanced and uncertain outcome. The vote comes after extensive negotiations and amendments to the bill, reflecting political compromises and the fragmented nature of the Assembly.

Health Minister Stéphanie Rist proposed a key amendment to increase the health insurance spending target from 2% to 3%, compensating for the government's decision not to raise medical deductibles in 2026 due to lack of majority support. Economy Minister Roland Lescure confirmed this amendment, which addresses demands from the Ecologists, a crucial bloc in the parliamentary arithmetic.

Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is actively seeking the support or at least the abstention of Ecologist deputies, which number 38. Senator Yannick Jadot has publicly urged Ecologists to abstain to avoid punishing the negotiated compromise that they helped shape. The Ecologists' stance appears pivotal; their abstention may prevent the bill's rejection.

The bill has won backing from the Socialist Party, which has been encouraged by the suspension of pension reform included in the text, with former President François Hollande calling on socialists to vote in favor. Other supporters include Modem, EPR, and some members of Liot, totaling around 210 votes. However, opposition is firm among the National Rally (RN), Insoumis, and communists, expected to reach about 220 votes against the bill. Abstentions are anticipated from Les Républicains (LR), Horizons, and the Ecologists, summing to around 120 deputies.

The vote's uncertainty is heightened by the absence of some RN deputies due to a party co-founder’s funeral, granting the government a narrow lead in prior votes. Yet, the opposition's close numbers make the final outcome unpredictable.

This vote will shape France's social protections and healthcare spending for the coming year and tests the government's ability to navigate a fragmented parliament and form consensus around essential fiscal measures impacting millions of French citizens.