French Municipal Elections 2026: Major Shifts in Voter Sentiment and Turmoil in Marseille Race

As the 2026 municipal elections approach, a recent Odoxa-Mascaret survey reveals significant shifts in French voter attitudes toward local governance, reflecting growing dissatisfaction with current mayors nationwide. According to the survey published on February 24, 2026, 55% of French citizens now prefer to elect a new mayor rather than re-elect their incumbent, marking an 8-point decline from June 2025 when 52% favored re-election. Local issues remain paramount for 75% of voters, yet influence from national political concerns has risen to 24% in just three months. The political landscape shows strong disapproval rates with 77% considering President Emmanuel Macron as not a good president, while Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu enjoys higher approval at 34%, outperforming Macron by 11 points. Notably, Jordan Bardella of the National Rally remains the most popular political figure with 35% support, followed closely by Marine Le Pen at 33%. Among left-leaning leaders, Raphaël Glucksmann stands out with 22% approval, contrasting with Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who faces 71% disapproval.

In Marseille, a focal point of the municipal elections, the race is notably tight and turbulent. An Opinionway survey from February 16-23 shows outgoing mayor Benoît Payan from the left-wing coalition and Franck Allisio of the Rassemblement National tied at 34% support each. Meanwhile, right and center candidate Martine Vassal's backing has plummeted to 14%, jeopardizing her chances of reaching the second round. The poll suggests a potentially complex second-round scenario, with Allisio narrowly leading Payan at 37% against 36% if all four main candidates remain in the contest. Martine Vassal and LFI’s Sébastien Delogu would lag behind with 14% and 13% respectively. The recent sharp decline in Vassal's support followed her controversial use of the Pétainist slogan “Work, Family, Fatherland” during a televised debate, which triggered widespread criticism.

Further complicating the Marseille dynamics, the Parti radical de gauche (PRG) has withdrawn from the 'Printemps marseillais' coalition led by Payan, citing concerns over perceived alignment with La France insoumise (LFI) and opaque decision-making tactics within the campaign. Hugo Roche Poggi of the PRG criticized political threats and a lack of transparency around candidate selections, underscoring internal discord. Payan’s team denies any rapprochement with LFI and maintains that official candidate lists are yet to be finalized.

These developments indicate a volatile electoral environment across France and in Marseille specifically, marked by voter desire for change, polarized political sentiments, and fractious coalition politics as the municipal elections draw near.