Economic Toll of 2025 Heatwaves in France: Productivity and Costs Plunge
The 2025 heatwaves in France lead to drastic productivity losses and significant economic costs.
Key Points
- • Current heatwave in France sees temperatures soar to 37 degrees Celsius.
- • Productivity losses in certain sectors reach up to two-thirds due to heat.
- • Estimates place economic costs from heatwaves between €22 billion and €37 billion from 2015 to 2020.
- • Health costs related to heatwaves estimated at €16 billion to €30 billion, emphasizing the urgent need for preventive measures.
As France endures a severe heatwave with temperatures reaching 37 degrees Celsius, the economic consequences have become starkly evident. Current estimates suggest a staggering productivity loss, particularly in sectors like construction and agriculture, with potential declines in output reaching up to two-thirds in some cases. Ana Boata, the director of economic research at Allianz Trade, noted that on days exceeding 32 degrees Celsius, productivity may drop by about 40%, while at 37 or 38 degrees, losses can escalate substantially.
A recent study by Santé publique France and the CNRS reveals that heatwaves from 2015 to 2020 have already cost the French economy between €22 billion and €37 billion. The economic ramifications of the ongoing heatwave are likely to exacerbate these losses, with estimates suggesting that a single day with temperatures above 32 degrees could equate to a half-day’s worth of work stoppage.
Furthermore, the broader economic impact of these heatwaves could stall European growth by as much as 0.5% in 2025, according to Allianz Trade's projections. Olivier Chanel, a researcher from CNRS, highlights the health costs associated with extreme heat, estimating them to range between €16 billion and €30 billion, with a significant percentage linked to excess mortality during hot weather.
Despite potential minor gains in sectors benefiting from increased consumer spending, such as ice cream sales, these are negligible compared to the overwhelming economic and health costs incurred. Chanel advocates for better preparation and proactive measures against heatwaves, like urban greening and improved healthcare responses. Although discussions about adaptation strategies occur before heatwaves, they often lose momentum post-crisis. He emphasizes the economic sense in investing in preventive measures, such as the state’s annual alert system established after the 2003 heatwave costing €450,000, which could save far more in economic and health impacts.
In conclusion, the compounding effects of the current heatwave threaten to magnify productivity losses, intensifying the financial burden on the French economy. With extreme heat becoming an increasingly frequent challenge, prioritizing preventive intervention strategies will be crucial to mitigate future economic and health impacts.