France Faces Heavy Rainfall and Flood Risks from Tuesday to Thursday

After an extended period of calm and stable high-pressure weather, France is bracing for a significant shift to disturbed and stormy conditions starting this week. A series of low-pressure systems from the Atlantic Ocean and the British Isles will influence northern France through the weekend, marking a transition from anticyclonic to oceanic disturbed weather flow. This change is accompanied by a surge of very humid subtropical air from the tropical Atlantic, contributing to heavy rainfall across several regions.

Rainfall has already intensified in the southeast since Monday, affecting areas such as the Rhône Valley, Côte d'Azur, and western Corsica. The most intense precipitation is forecast between Tuesday and Thursday, particularly in the western Massif Central, Aquitaine, eastern reliefs, and the Manche coast, where rainfall accumulations could exceed 100mm, and in certain exposed areas may reach 120 to 140mm. The Extreme Forecast Index indicates near-record levels of rainfall for this time of year in central-western and central-eastern France.

Given the substantial rainfall and the broad geographical coverage, there is an elevated risk of flooding later this week. However, the impact may be partially mitigated by the dryness of recent weeks. Authorities advise residents to stay alert and monitor ongoing weather updates due to the evolving situation.

This forecast underscores the return of disturbed conditions after a calm spell, with potential heavy precipitation presenting both a meteorological event and a public safety concern for many regions across France during late October 2025.