France Faces Political Uncertainty Amid Weak Economic Growth and Budget Deficit Concerns
France's economic growth forecast weakens amid political instability, with budget deficits expected to rise and key political figures experiencing fluctuating popularity.
- • France's GDP growth forecast at 0.7% for 2025 and 2026, below potential growth of 1.4%.
- • Budget deficit could reach 5.1% of GDP with moderate consolidation, possibly 5.5% in 2026 with special law.
- • Minister of Public Accounts describes budget as not very severe.
- • Poll shows Jean-Louis Borloo and Dominique de Villepin as most favored politicians amid declining support for presidential candidates.
- • President Macron records lowest approval at 22%, ranking last in poll.
Key details
France's political landscape remains unstable as the government prepares for budget discussions in the National Assembly, amid forecasts of sluggish economic growth. According to the French Economic Observatory (OFCE), the country's GDP is expected to grow by only 0.7% in both 2025 and 2026, significantly below the potential growth rate of 1.4% per year. This weak growth is attributed to an uncertain political climate, weakening domestic demand, and rising international trade tensions. The OFCE warns that the budget deficit could reach 5.1% of GDP under moderate consolidation, potentially increasing to 5.5% if a special law ensuring temporary budget continuity is enacted for 2026. The Minister of Public Accounts described the budget as "not very severe," acknowledging these economic challenges.
Meanwhile, the political crisis reflects in public opinion as an Ifop-Fiducial poll shows Jean-Louis Borloo and Dominique de Villepin as the most favored politicians in France, each leading among 51 personalities. This contrasts with declining popularity for most candidates in the 2027 presidential race, including Edouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, and Marine Le Pen. President Emmanuel Macron recorded his lowest approval, ranking 51st with 22%. Former leader Nicolas Sarkozy remains relatively high in the rankings despite impending incarceration.
This economic and political uncertainty highlights the challenges France faces as it approaches pivotal parliamentary debates and the 2027 presidential election.