France's Declining Birth Rate Threatens Economic Growth and Pensions

France continues to face a significant drop in birth rates, with October 2025 recording 55,165 births, a 3.6% decrease compared to the previous year, according to the National Institute of Statistics (Insee). Year-to-date births from January to October also declined by 2.3%, with the current fertility rate at 1.6, below the forecasted 1.8. Economic experts warn this demographic trend poses serious challenges. Gilbert Cette, president of the Retirement Orientation Council, highlighted that this lower fertility could reduce annual economic growth projections by 0.15 percentage points, resulting in a €60 billion loss in public revenue by 2070. Additionally, the pension system could see deficits worsen by up to 60% if the fertility rate remains at 1.6. An aging population—with estimates that by 2040, 26% to 28% of the population will be aged 65 or older—will create dependency ratios around 50%, further stressing social systems. The High Commissioner for Strategy and Planning has noted the decline will intensify recruitment difficulties across sectors and may require extending the retirement contribution period from 43 to 46 years by 2045 if reforms avoid cutting pensions or raising contributions. This ongoing demographic shift is set to structurally impact France’s productivity, labor market equilibrium, social security sustainability, and overall economic growth in the coming decades.