French Court of Auditors Warns of Soaring Social Security Deficit and Uncertain Recovery Path in 2025

The French Cour des comptes has raised serious alarms about the social security budget for 2025, warning of an unprecedented deficit and significant challenges in returning to financial equilibrium. According to a report published on November 3, 2025, the social security deficit is expected to reach 23 billion euros, marking an increase of 7.7 billion euros over 2024 and a doubling of the deficit within two years — the highest since the exceptional Covid crisis years. This sharp deterioration poses a "high risk" to the social accounts by 2026, further intensifying concerns as Parliament prepares to debate the related social security financing law (PLFSS) for 2026.

The Cour des comptes criticized the government's overly optimistic revenue forecasts, now in their third consecutive year, which complicate realistic budget planning. Pierre Moscovici, president of the Cour, emphasized that the current trajectory is unsustainable in the long term and stressed the necessity for a credible path to restore budget balance. Achieving this balance is essential to enable the Caisse d'amortissement de la dette sociale (social debt amortization fund) to resume reducing accumulated debt.

While the proposed PLFSS includes efforts to curb the deficit, the Court highlighted significant uncertainties surrounding these recovery plans. The late submission of the PLFSS to Parliament and doubts about the future feasibility of the proposed measures during parliamentary discussions raise questions about whether a consensus can be reached. As noted in the Court's report, enacting the necessary measures requires a political agreement that is not yet established, adding to the risks of fiscal instability.

The examination of the PLFSS is scheduled to begin at the National Assembly on November 4, 2025, setting the stage for intense political debate amid these pressing fiscal challenges. This situation underscores the critical state of France's social security finances and the urgent need for careful management and political cooperation to avert further deterioration.