French Economists Urge €126 Billion Effort by 2032 to Stabilize Public Debt

A group of four economists commissioned by the French Ministry of Economy (Bercy) has identified that France needs to implement an economic effort totaling approximately €126 billion by 2032 to stabilize its public debt. The report, submitted in mid-July 2026 and involving economists such as Xavier Ragot and Jean-Luc Tavernier, projects a worsening fiscal situation if current policies remain unchanged.

The public deficit is forecasted to rise from the government's current 5% of GDP target in 2026 to 5.9% in 2027 and further to 6.8% by 2030, defying the commitment to reduce deficits below 3% of GDP by 2029 as promised to the European Commission. Concurrently, public debt is expected to increase from 118.4% of GDP in 2026 to 121.4% in 2027 and could reach as high as 130.5% by 2030.

The economists emphasize that stabilizing debt will require a sustained budgetary adjustment starting urgently in 2027, involving traditional fiscal levers: public spending cuts, increased revenues, and a boost in economic growth potential. They warn that deficits may worsen in 2027 due to rising interest payments on debt, expansion of military expenditure under programming laws, and the termination of a corporate tax surcharge on large companies which currently raises €8 billion annually.

Importantly, the report highlights that this financial effort must be equitably distributed across the population, dismissing the notion that only certain groups should bear the burden. Above all, political determination will be essential, especially as 2027 is an election year, to implement the necessary adjustments. The economists caution that failure to act will lead to prohibitive economic costs.

This comprehensive analysis presents a critical economic challenge for France in the coming decade, framing urgent fiscal policy decisions against the backdrop of political realities and ongoing economic pressures.