French Intelligence Sees Lower Terrorist Threat Ahead of November 13 Commemorations

Nicolas Lerner, the new director general of France's external security agency (DGSE), assessed on November 10, 2025, that the likelihood of a large-scale terrorist attack similar to the November 13, 2015 Paris attacks has "considerably diminished." In his first radio interview at France Inter, Lerner emphasized there is no specific threat identified for this year's November 13 commemorations. However, he underscored the necessity for continued vigilance amid a general atmosphere of caution following recent arrests of individuals plotting attacks on French soil.

Lerner attributed the lower risk to effective military operations against terrorist groups in Syria and Iraq, improved border controls, and the dismantling of terrorist cells. Yet, he warned that the evolving nature of terrorist groups particularly in regions like Syria, Afghanistan, and Africa means France must remain alert as terrorism tends to be cyclical.

Significantly, Lerner highlighted an emerging concern over "endogenous threats" involving radicalized individuals within France, notably the rise of terrorism among minors. He revealed that over 15 minors are prosecuted annually for terrorist-related activities, indicating a troubling trend of young people susceptible to extremist propaganda.

Additionally, Lerner spoke about hybrid attacks orchestrated by Russia, reflecting the broad scope of threats French intelligence monitors. His remarks delineate a security environment marked by both progress and complexity ahead of the sensitive anniversary commemorations.