US Tariffs Surge in 2025 Disrupts Global Economy and Hits French Exports

Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025, US import tariffs have dramatically risen from an average of 2.5% to nearly 18% by mid-October, creating significant disruption in global trade. European exporters, including French companies, have felt the effects, with French exports to the US declining by over 1 billion euros. Despite fears of a full-scale trade war, diplomatic efforts have tempered tensions, resulting in reduced tariffs to 15% on most EU exports and exemptions on certain consumer goods to curb inflation.

The global economy is projected to grow by 3.2% in 2025, supported by US companies restocking inventory and robust growth in the US artificial intelligence sector, which has offset some tariff-related impacts. However, the trade environment remains uncertain, causing caution among businesses in investment decisions.

China has responded by redirecting exports towards Europe, with a 5.4% increase in exports over the first eleven months of the year, even as shipments to the US decline. The shift signals that Europe may face the brunt of ongoing trade frictions.

The US has sought exemptions from European regulations, adding further pressure on European exporters. Despite the escalation in tariffs, a comprehensive trade war has been avoided, reflecting complex negotiations between the US and its trading partners.

In summary, the sharp rise in US tariffs has restructured global trade patterns and rocked French exporters, but the global economy has demonstrated resilience amid uncertainty and shifting market dynamics.