US Tariffs Threaten French Export Sectors with Major Job Losses
New US tariffs threaten French export sectors with significant economic impact and job losses.
Key Points
- • US imposes new tariffs set for August 1, 2025; industries at risk include wine and cosmetics.
- • Asterès estimates potential losses of €1 billion for French exports and 17,000 job losses.
- • Banque de France reports negative impacts on 6% of companies surveyed; viticulture hardest hit.
- • French economy grew 0.1% in Q2 2023, though trade tensions could hinder further growth.
The potential implementation of stricter US tariffs on European imports poses a significant threat to key sectors of the French economy, particularly wine, spirits, and cosmetics. Following a temporary reprieve granted by the United States, new tariffs are now scheduled for August 1, 2025. If enforced, analysts estimate that a 20% tariff could lead to approximately €1 billion in losses for French exports, significantly affecting employment and trade volume in various industries.
According to a report by the economic consulting firm Asterès, the sectors most at risk from the proposed tariffs could see job losses totaling around 17,000, with both the wine and cosmetics industries alone projected to lose over 5,000 jobs each. These figures reflect both direct and indirect job losses, highlighting the vulnerability of these sectors amid rising trade tensions. The analysis also notes that France’s overall export volume to the US could decrease by 11% as a result of these tariffs.
The Banque de France has echoed these concerns, noting that the tariffs have started to adversely affect French businesses, with a particular impact observed in agriculture and viticulture. According to their latest survey, 6% of surveyed companies reported a negative impact on their activity due to the tariffs, with manufacturing feeling an 8% impact and the food industry experiencing an average activity decline of 2.6%. The wine sector, in particular, has been noted as being hit hard, compounding existing challenges faced by producers.
Despite these adverse effects, the French economy showed a slight growth of 0.1% in the second quarter of 2023. The National Institute of Statistics is set to release additional economic estimates indicating continued but modest recovery. However, the outlook remains cautious as companies adjust to increasing uncertainty fueled by US trade policies and competition from other markets, notably China.
In sum, as the August deadline approaches, French sectors heavily reliant on exports to the US face mounting pressures, prompting concerns about sustained job losses and economic stability.