European Economy Shows Resilience Amid Trade and Geopolitical Challenges; Toulouse Defends Aerospace Sector's Vital Role

The European economy has demonstrated unexpected resilience in the face of significant global challenges, including U.S. tariffs, increased Chinese imports, and political deadlocks in France. Economic forecasts for the Eurozone predict growth between 1.4% and 1.5% for 2025, with a stabilization around 1% expected in 2026. Gilles Moëc, chief economist at Axa, described this economic environment as “mediocre, but resilient.” Additionally, Bruno Cavalier, economist at Oddo BHF, highlighted an unusual contradiction between global instability and a prevailing positive sentiment as 2026 approaches.

However, this growth is somewhat distorted by Ireland, whose accounting practices by multinational corporations inflate growth statistics. Ireland's economy represents just over 3% of the EU's GDP but has a magnified effect due to tax-related profit declarations by American companies.

At a more localized level in France, Toulouse’s Mayor Jean-Luc Moudenc emphasizes the aerospace and space sectors as central to the city's economic health. He states that 86,000 jobs in the city depend on these industries, which form the backbone of Toulouse’s status as France's third-largest city by economic activity. Moudenc criticized political opponents, particularly on the radical left, for their opposition to the NATO center in Toulouse and concerns over industrial sovereignty. He defended the aerospace industry from ecological criticisms, promoting ongoing decarbonization efforts, such as projects by Aura Aero.

Moudenc reaffirmed his commitment to fostering business growth through tax stability, infrastructure investments, and rejecting policies like the Zero Artificialization Net gain (ZAN) that could threaten industrial development. His comments underline the critical role of regional industrial sectors within the broader framework of European economic resilience.

Together, these perspectives illustrate a European economy that, despite mediocre growth and external pressures, maintains a stable outlook, with important regional economies like Toulouse actively defending their industrial legacies and future in a challenging global environment.