France and Eurozone Set for Moderate Economic Growth in 2026 Amid Global Challenges

Economic forecasts for 2026 anticipate moderate growth for France and the broader Eurozone, navigating a complex global landscape. According to BNP Paribas Economic Research, the Eurozone is projected to strengthen its growth to 1.6% in 2026, buoyed by fiscal stimulus in Germany and increased military expenditures. France's economy is expected to accelerate to 1.1% growth after a slowdown to 0.8% in 2025, a deceleration attributed in part to political uncertainties.

Globally, the economic environment shows mixed signals: the US economy is poised for above-potential growth at 2.9%, though inflation remains elevated above 2.8% with associated labor market shifts and monetary easing through anticipated rate cuts. China faces growth headwinds due to a domestic real estate crisis, despite policy measures, while Japan's modest growth is hindered by persistent inflation affecting real incomes.

David Baverez, an investor and commentator on European economic affairs, critically highlights Europe's strategic vulnerabilities. He argues that Europe has marginalized geo-economic considerations, overly focusing on environmental transitions and artificial intelligence without fully integrating geopolitical realities. Baverez warns that Europe's reliance on China for green technologies and the US for digital tech risks economic sovereignty. He calls for EU member states to embrace a narrative of interdependence, overcoming internal bureaucratic inefficiencies and market fragmentation to boost competitiveness, especially in AI.

The forecasted depreciation of the dollar against the euro offers some cushion to the Eurozone, but risks remain considerable in a shifting global order marked by US-China competition and evolving supply chain geopolitics. Europe's future economic resilience will require concerted efforts to improve education, research, and internal market integration, as well as a strategic pivot balancing sovereignty with interdependence.