France Faces a Loss of 1.7 Million Students by 2035 Amid Declining Birth Rates

France is expected to see a significant drop in student enrollment, with projections indicating a loss of approximately 1,676,800 students by 2035, largely due to falling fertility rates. The primary education sector is set to be most affected, with an anticipated decline of 933,000 students, representing a 15.2% decrease. Secondary education is also projected to shrink by 743,800 students, a 13.2% reduction.

Education Minister Édouard Geffray highlighted the "seismic" nature of this demographic shift on April 7, urging a thoughtful reconsideration of school infrastructure across both urban and rural areas. Urban centers such as Paris are expected to face a staggering 30% drop in student numbers over the next decade, necessitating the reassessment of the distribution of schools, colleges, and high schools. In contrast, rural areas may need to explore intercommunal educational groupings to adapt effectively.

Geffray acknowledged that these enrollment declines align with a trend already underway, cautioning that delay in addressing such changes could lead to class closures and job losses. While he stopped short of confirming staff cuts, he emphasized that postponing decisions might compound future challenges. Union leaders, including Aurélie Gagnier of SNUipp-FSU and Sophie Vénétitay of Snes-FSU, expressed concerns that the lower student numbers should not justify reductions in educational staff, arguing that smaller classes could benefit from maintaining personnel levels.

Geffray is scheduled to engage with union representatives on April 21 to discuss these demographic challenges and possible responses. This population trend poses a pivotal challenge for French educational policy and school infrastructure planning moving forward.