French National Assembly Approaches Crucial Vote on 2026 Social Security Budget Amid Political Tensions

The French National Assembly is poised to vote on December 9th on the 2026 Social Security Financing Bill (PLFSS), a pivotal moment for Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's government. The outcome of this vote could secure the bill’s final adoption before the year's end, but significant political uncertainties remain. The proposed budget features controversial tax increases that have stirred tensions, especially among right-wing parliamentarians.

The Macronist camp is particularly anxious about the stance of the ecologists, who hold the balance of power. A senior Macronist expressed apprehension stating, "Everything is in the hands of the ecologists. If they vote against, it’s dead." This underscores the precarious nature of the parliamentary arithmetic for Lecornu's administration.

In a significant development, the Socialist Party (PS) has decided to back the budget after suspending several previously contentious reform plans, including the elimination of two public holidays, reforms to unemployment insurance, and cuts to social minimums, pensions, and the general social contribution (CSG). Boris Vallaud, president of the Socialist deputies, highlighted these concessions, noting also increased funding secured for hospitals, with health expenditure targets potentially rising from 1.6% to 3%. He affirmed that the Socialist group aims to cast their votes in favor of the Social Security budget, reflecting a commitment to what he described as "an opposition utile" (useful opposition).

PS leader Olivier Faure had earlier urged deputies to support the budget to ensure its passage, emphasizing the importance of securing a "budget the least bad possible." This stance contrasts with past dismissive attitudes toward the budget negotiations, indicating a shift grounded in recent policy adjustments.

As the vote approaches, Prime Minister Lecornu faces a high-stakes moment described as "quitte ou double" (do or die) within the Assembly. The government's ability to navigate the diverging positions of its allies and opponents will be decisive for the Social Security budget’s fate and for maintaining parliamentary confidence going into 2026.