Global Economic Outlook 2026: France Stabilizes amid Eurozone Growth and Geopolitical Challenges

As 2026 unfolds, the global economy faces a nuanced outlook with growth projected at +2.6%, slightly down from +2.8% in 2025. According to Coface, this slight deceleration accompanies persistent geopolitical, financial, and social risks that cloud the horizon. The Eurozone is expected to experience modest growth around 1%, with France notably stabilizing at a growth rate of +0.9%, despite grappling with a high public deficit exceeding 5% of GDP.

The United States anticipates growth of +2.2%, though business failures increased by 15% in the latter half of 2025, highlighting underlying vulnerabilities. In contrast, Central Europe, anchored by Poland's robust dynamics, projects stronger growth at +3.8%. Asia presents a mixed picture with China’s growth slowing to +4.4%, while India leads with a growth rate of +6.1%, driven by strong domestic demand.

Trade globalized resiliently throughout 2025, with global trade up by 3.9%, fuelled by robust US imports and tempered tariff tensions. Oil prices are expected to ease from $68 per barrel to around $60 in 2026, reflecting moderated demand and increased supply.

Europe, highlighted as a stable bloc by Pierre Gramegna, Director General of the European Stability Mechanism, continues to uphold the rule of law amidst economic and geopolitical challenges. Valdis Dombrovskis, European Commissioner for Economy, warned that global economic imbalances reached 4% of global GDP in 2024. Concurrently, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio underscored the necessity of a strong transatlantic relationship at the Munich conference, stating, “We want Europe to be strong. We believe Europe must survive.”

French President Emmanuel Macron condemned ongoing Russian violence in Ukraine, emphasizing, “As peace is taking shape, Russia continues to kill civilians.” The conference also celebrated Europe's strides in space exploration with astronaut Sophie Adenot's mission, invigorating European ambition in the sector.

Overall, France’s economic stabilization at +0.9% amidst Eurozone growth and geopolitical turbulence highlights the continent’s resilience yet underscores challenges ahead in managing deficits and maintaining economic momentum during uncertain times.