Global Economy Shows Resilience in 2026 with France Poised for Moderate Growth

The global economy is forecasted to remain robust in 2026, with growth projections maintained despite geopolitical uncertainties and inflationary challenges. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and BNP Paribas Economic Research both highlight positive growth prospects for major economies including France, underscoring a cautiously optimistic outlook.

According to the IMF, global economic growth is expected to reach 3.3% in 2026, a slight upward revision, before slowing marginally to 3.2% in 2027. Inflation is projected to ease to 3.8% worldwide, with advanced economies nearing a 2% inflation rate. The IMF points to persistent geopolitical tensions, including trade disputes and possible new tariffs, as risks that could unsettle this growth trajectory.

Focusing on the United States, BNP Paribas projects a strengthening economy growing at 2.9% in 2026, up from 2.3% in 2025. This growth is largely driven by optimism around investments in artificial intelligence and consumer spending among affluent households, despite inflation rising to an estimated 2.7% due to tariffs. The IMF similarly forecasts US growth at 2.4%, emphasizing AI investments as a key driver.

China's economy, which grew 5% in both 2024 and 2025, is expected to slow to around 4.5% in 2026 due to weakening domestic demand and ongoing real estate sector troubles.

In the Eurozone, BNP Paribas anticipates economic growth lifting to 1.6%, aided by German fiscal stimulus and increased military expenditures across Europe. The IMF offers a slightly more conservative growth outlook for Germany at 1.1%, and highlights Spain as the fastest-growing EU economy with 2.3% growth. France’s economy is expected to see growth of approximately 1% to 1.2% in 2026-2027, supported by a rebound in German growth and regional economic stability. In third quarter 2025, France recorded quarterly growth of 0.5%, setting the stage for acceleration.

Both sources acknowledge challenges including persistent inflationary pressures, slowed labor markets in the US, and geopolitical risks such as threats of new tariffs by former US administration figures. The dollar is also projected to depreciate against the euro in 2026, influenced by structural fiscal adjustments and European growth dynamics.

Quotes underline this cautious optimism: IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas noted that "while trade disruptions from tariffs have had an impact, other forces have countered this effect, allowing for quicker recovery." BNP Paribas highlights the "K-shaped recovery" in the US, driven by AI investments and affluent consumption, yet tempered by labor market slowdowns.

In summary, despite uncertainties, the global economy—with notable resilience in the US, China, and the Eurozone—points toward moderate growth in 2026. France is positioned to benefit from this environment with steady economic gains, though vigilance remains necessary due to inflation and geopolitical risks.