Government Considers Article 49.3 Amidst Budget 2026 Political Strains

As France grapples with the adoption of its 2026 budget, the government faces mounting political challenges and a divided public. Amélie de Montchalin, Minister of Public Accounts, has indicated that all options remain on the table to ensure the budget's passage, including the controversial use of Article 49.3. This move would mark a departure from prior assurances by Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, who had promised to avoid resorting to this procedure.

De Montchalin emphasized the critical goal of reducing the national deficit to below 5% of GDP, a task requiring significant financial adjustments estimated between 11 and 12 billion euros. She called for parliamentary collaboration, stressing the government’s ultimate responsibility to secure budget adoption despite the Senate's financial demands complicating efforts.

Concurrently, President Emmanuel Macron’s standing has weakened significantly, with his confidence rating dropping to a low 12% at the start of 2026. This decline is largely attributed to a 15-point loss of support among centrist voters within just one month. Public opinion remains sharply divided, with 49% expressing trust in Macron and 49% opposing him. However, his own party, Renaissance, continues to back him strongly, with 77% support.

Prime Minister Lecornu, though slightly more popular at 26%, remains politically vulnerable as negotiations over the 2026 finance bill intensify. Socialist leaders have warned of a potential motion of censure from about twenty parliamentary members if the government proceeds with Article 49.3, signaling possible legislative turmoil ahead.

These developments underscore the precarious balance the French government must maintain between fulfilling public fiscal objectives and navigating an increasingly fraught political landscape as budget discussions continue into the new year.