Judicial Request for Five-Year Ineligibility Threatens Marine Le Pen’s 2027 Presidential Bid

Marine Le Pen faces a significant legal challenge that could bar her from standing in the 2027 presidential election. In the ongoing trial related to the European parliamentary assistants of the National Front, prosecutors have requested a four-year prison sentence for Le Pen, with three years suspended, and a five-year period of ineligibility. Unlike previous rulings, the prosecution has not requested the provisional execution of this ineligibility, but the implications remain severe.

Le Pen has publicly stated that if the court adopts the prosecution's recommendations, she would be "prevented" from running in the next presidency due to the timing of potential further appeals. The court's decision is expected around June or July, and if the case advances to the Court of Cassation, a ruling might only come by late 2026 or early 2027—uncomfortably close to the election timeline.

This looming ineligibility significantly narrows Le Pen's political options, raising speculation about the succession of her presidential ambitions within her party, particularly towards Jordan Bardella, a prominent party figure. Although theoretically, some scenarios still allow for her candidacy, the path is notably narrow and uncertain.

The legal proceedings and their timing create profound uncertainty around Le Pen’s political future and the National Front’s leadership as France approaches the next presidential election.