Lecornu Government Faces Major Political Turmoil Amid Pension Reform Suspension

The French government led by Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is currently grappling with significant political instability and public disapproval mere days after its formation. Following the establishment of the "Lecornu 2" cabinet, which includes 34 ministers with a focus on civil society figures and less ambitious politicians, the government was immediately confronted with two motions of censure filed by La France Insoumise and a nationalist alliance including the Rassemblement National and Éric Ciotti's UDR. This precarious situation is compounded by public opinion, as a recent Odoxa-Backbone Consulting study reveals that 72% of French citizens reject the new government and a slight majority favors its fall (ID 101727).

In an effort to stabilize the situation and avert immediate government collapse, Lecornu announced the suspension of the contentious pension reform — a move seen as critical to maintaining his administration (ID 101604). However, the suspension is not yet effective legally; Lecornu clarified that "as long as the Parliament has not definitively adopted it, the suspension does not exist," and emphasized the government's obligation to submit an amendment to the Social Security finance bill by November to formalize the suspension (ID 101733).

The Socialist Party’s stance remains uncertain despite suspending opposition to censure motions, with the possibility of reviving attempts to topple the government if their demands on social policy and budget negotiations are unmet (ID 101727). Political allies such as the Republicans appear divided on supporting censure, with party leader Laurent Wauquiez calling for abstention (ID 101604). Adding to internal challenges, Yannick Neuder refused to remain as Minister of Health under the new government due to unsatisfactory conditions, underscoring ongoing tensions within Lecornu's team (ID 101675).

The Lecornu II government’s future is uncertain, contrasting sharply with the record short tenure of Lecornu’s previous administration and highlighting a period of growing political volatility in France (ID 101534). The government’s ability to navigate parliamentary approval of the pension reform suspension and manage internal and external political pressures will determine its survival in the coming months.