Lecornu's Resignation Sparks Budget Deadlock and Governmental Uncertainty in France

Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's unexpected resignation on October 6, 2025, has thrown France into political and fiscal uncertainty, particularly imperiling the timely adoption of the 2026 budget. Lecornu resigned mere hours after his government was formed, leaving the country without a stable executive team to present the critical finance bill which must be submitted to the Council of Ministers by October 7 and then to the National Assembly by October 13, initiating a constitutionally mandated 70-day parliamentary review process.\n\nGiven these tight deadlines, experts including François Ecalle deem it unlikely that a new government can be established swiftly enough to draft and propose a new budget, casting doubt over the procedure governed by France's organic finance laws. The resignation complicates the legislative process further since the outgoing government managing "affaires courantes"—day-to-day affairs—faces legal complexities and unprecedented challenges in submitting legislation during a transition phase.\n\nIn light of these hurdles, the most probable outcome is the adoption of a special budget law that extends the previous year's budget without amendments, allowing the government to continue collecting taxes but likely leading to a "blank year" with limited new expenditures or subsidies, except for automatically indexed mandatory social spending. While this measure ensures public services continue to be funded, it raises concerns about the potential for increased tax burdens and curtails the government's capacity to finance new initiatives in 2026.\n\nThe current interim government, which includes 18 newly appointed ministers confirmed just before Lecornu's resignation, will remain in place until a replacement government is formed. This precarious situation has ignited speculation about the appointment of a new Prime Minister, possible implications for President Macron's position, and governance stability heading into a traditionally sensitive budgetary period. These events place France at a critical juncture, with both governance and financial planning facing considerable uncertainty in the short term.