Paris 2026 Municipal Elections Heat Up with Right-Wing Rivalries and Left's Narrow Lead

As the Paris 2026 municipal elections approach, political tensions within the right-wing camp escalate, while the left maintains a slight lead in the polls. Emmanuel Grégoire, representing a united left coalition, tops the first-round voting intentions with 32%, closely followed by Republican candidate Rachida Dati at 30%, according to a recent Ifop poll conducted with 991 registered voters. 

Right-wing candidates are jockeying for dominance: Sarah Knafo, a Member of the European Parliament from Reconquête, claims to be the only candidate capable of uniting the right-wing factions to defeat the left. Polling at 11%, Knafo positions herself as the "useful vote" and criticizes Pierre-Yves Bournazel of Horizons-Renaissance, who also polls around 12%, for potentially undermining right-wing unity. Knafo emphasized her willingness to form alliances with other right-wing factions if she leads the first round, warning those who refuse collaboration bear responsibility for the eventual outcome.

Meanwhile, Dati, bolstered by support from the Republicans (LR), MoDem, and UDI, has increased her standing and is favored to win in several second-round scenarios. Notably, despite alliances being possible, Dati has rejected alignment with Knafo's Reconquête party, citing value differences.

Poll scenarios reveal a tightly contested race: in a direct duel, Dati would defeat Grégoire 53% to 47%, but in triangular or four-way contests, outcomes vary with narrow margins. The political dynamic clearly hinges on right-wing coalition-building efforts and the left's need to maintain its lead amid these divisions.

This evolving contest underscores the critical role intra-right disagreements may play in Paris's mayoral race and highlights the challenge to the city's traditionally left-leaning governance.