Political Turmoil Deepens as Threat of Assembly Dissolution Backfires Amid Record Immigration

France's political crisis has intensified following the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu on October 6, which has left the government unstable and weakened. The executive's strategy to leverage the threat of dissolving the National Assembly in order to force political compromise is proving counterproductive. Political parties are increasingly resistant to negotiations, fearing blame for potential failures in upcoming elections. Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot warned that a swift censure motion might effectively act as a dissolution, signaling heightened tensions even within the coalition government.

Compounding the political challenges is a significant societal development: the arrival of 434,000 immigrants in 2024, the highest influx ever recorded in France, according to data released by Insee on October 7. This unprecedented immigration level adds complexity to governance amid growing public and political pressures.

Commentators like former Sarkozy advisor Henri Guaino have voiced concerns about the government's precarious situation, suggesting that President Macron may be edging toward a resignation scenario, which could deepen national disorder. Louis Hausalter's recent essay reflects on the decline of Macron's political power amidst these challenges.

The combination of a fraught governmental landscape, political intransigence, and unprecedented immigration figures underscores the multifaceted crisis France currently faces, with no immediate resolution in sight.