Rassemblement National Gains Ground Amid Rising Pessimism and Political Distrust in France

A recent Ipsos survey, conducted from October 1 to 9, 2025, reveals a deepening pessimism among French citizens regarding the state of their country, with 90% believing France is in decline—a historic high. This bleak outlook, fueled by social, environmental, geopolitical, and political crises, corresponds with rampant distrust of political institutions and leaders.

The survey underscores a striking shift in the French political landscape, with the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) emerging as a significant force. Nearly half of respondents (47%) now see the RN as capable of governing, marking a 5-point increase from 2024 and a 15-point rise since 2020. Additionally, 42% feel that the RN represents their concerns, the highest among all political parties. While nearly half (49%) still consider the RN a threat to democracy, this is a notable improvement—a 12-point drop since 2020.

Support for traditional parties continues to wane sharply. The Socialist Party and Renaissance garner only 8% support each, while the RN enjoys a solid 22% backing, up 8 points from five years ago. The RN’s growing credibility now rivals that of Les Républicains and surpasses Renaissance by 17 points, reflecting a rightward political shift.

Distrust extends broadly across institutions. The presidency's popularity has collapsed to 22%, a 22-point decline since 2017. Parliamentary confidence is similarly depressed, with 77% distrusting the National Assembly—escalating to 83% following the resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu. Public discontent is palpable, with 43% calling for an Assembly dissolution and 58% advocating for President Emmanuel Macron’s resignation. In contrast, local mayors maintain relatively strong trust at 68%.

Ipsos study director Matthieu Gallard characterizes the nation's mood as one of fatigue, anxiety, and a yearning for authority. This climate positions the RN as a credible alternative for many voters, especially as the 2027 presidential election approaches. Meanwhile, parties like La France Insoumise face growing perceptions of radicalism, with 70% labeling it as extreme left.

Overall, the Ipsos surveys illustrate a transforming French political terrain marked by widespread dissatisfaction and shifting allegiances, elevating the RN’s status amid a declining faith in traditional political actors. This evolving sentiment highlights significant challenges for France’s governing institutions and highlights a potential redefinition of its political future.