Rising Unemployment in France Casts Doubt on Macron's Full Employment Promise for 2027

At the end of 2025, France's unemployment rate climbed to 7.9%, marking the highest level since 2021 and signaling a setback for President Emmanuel Macron's ambitious goal of full employment by 2027. The total number of unemployed individuals reached 2.5 million, an increase of 56,000 in the last quarter alone, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee) and International Labour Organization (ILO) data.

Youth unemployment, among those aged 15 to 24, surged alarmingly to 21.5%, up 2.4 percentage points in the final quarter of 2025. This contrasts with a slight decrease in the 25-49 age group to 6.9% and stable unemployment among those over 50 at 5.1%. The rising joblessness has also fueled growing public anxiety, with household sentiment around unemployment worries peaking since 2016.

These figures come despite Macron's earlier promise to reduce unemployment to 5% by 2027, a target now widely considered unattainable amid these trends. Analysts attribute some of the upward pressure on unemployment to structural factors, including the 2023 pension reform that expanded the labor force and may slightly raise unemployment rates further into mid-2026.

Comparatively, France's unemployment rate lags behind European neighbors such as Germany, which maintains a low rate of 3.8%, and Italy, which recently dropped below 6%. The Eurozone average stands at 6.3%, underscoring France’s relatively weaker labor market performance.

During an employment-focused event in October 2024 in Rouen, organized with France Travail, observers noted that Macron's political future is unaffected by this outcome as he cannot run in 2027, contrasting with predecessors who faced electoral repercussions for unemployment rises.

Looking forward, the Banque de France projects modest employment growth through 2026, anticipating a stabilization of the unemployment rate around 7.8%, with a slight improvement to 7.4% by 2027. However, this still falls short of the full employment ambition that had been set.

The current trajectory highlights significant challenges for France’s labor market, particularly for young workers, complicating government efforts to fulfill presidential employment promises and raising broader questions about economic resilience and social stability.