Tensions Rise Ahead of Crucial Vote on France's 2025 Social Security Budget

With just 48 hours remaining before the French National Assembly votes on the 2025 Social Security budget, tensions are reaching a boiling point within the government coalition. The budget, a central piece of social policy, faces uncertain prospects amid sharp divisions between parties, threatening its passage.

Bruno Retailleau, leader of the Republicans and recent defector from the government camp, strongly criticized the budget in an interview with BFMTV. He described it as a “fiscal hold-up” due to rising Contribution Sociale Généralisée (CSG) taxes, a "social hold-up" concerning pension issues, and a "democratic hold-up," lamenting that “never has the country been so right-wing, nor a government so left-wing.” Retailleau declared the budget "not votable," stating his deputies would either abstain or vote against it. This opposition aligns with former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe's party, Horizons, which has also announced it will not support the budget in its current form following substantial abstentions on the revenue side.

Despite various concessions made to the Socialist Party (PS), the budget’s fate remains uncertain. On December 8, Olivier Faure, PS leader, called on socialist deputies to back the compromise budget, emphasizing the progress made during negotiations. Faure praised Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s commitment, particularly the suspension of controversy-laden pension reforms, and stressed the need for reliability and cooperation to secure the budget’s adoption. He described the right-wing opposition as “engineers of chaos” obstructing this crucial social financing.

This looming vote underscores the fragility of the current government coalition and the high stakes involved in France’s social security financing for the coming year. The outcome will reveal whether the government can impose its vision or whether opposition forces will derail the budget, prompting political instability. The Assembly's decision in the coming days will be a significant moment for France’s social and fiscal future.